The in-house analysis performed by DG TRADE’s Chief Economist team estimates a 9.7% decrease in global tradefor 2020. For the EU27, the predicted COVID19-related economic contraction results in a reduction of 9.2% in extra-EU27 exports of goods and services, and an 8.8% decrease in extra-EU27 imports in 2020. In absolute terms, compared to the latest available statistics, this amounts to a reduction of exports by about 285 billion EUR and by 240 billion EUR in extra-EU imports (goods and services combined). Exports of primary sectors (other than energy) and servicestrade5 turn out to be less strongly affected than manufacturing sectors, most of which see export contractions above 10%. In particular, transport equipment and electrical machinery turn out to be more strongly affected.

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